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Our model projects Oklahoma City Thunder 120, Los Angeles Lakers 109, with the Thunder favored in this NBA matchup.
The combined 229.2-point projection runs below the NBA’s 233.9 combined-points average. Thunder score 118.5 a game and concede 108.0; Lakers score 114.5 and concede 113.3.
Game 1 of the Quarter-finals series; the bracket is level coming in. Tip-off at Paycom Center. Stream availability varies by region; the broadcasters listed below show what is licensed where.
Model projection · not financial advice.
Built from NBA 2025-2026 season data: scoring rate, opponent defence, head-to-head record. 18+, gamble responsibly.
The model line: Thunder by 11.6, total 229.2.
Thunder at home: 37–7 SU, 118.5 PPG. Lakers on the road: 27–19 SU, 114.5 PPG.
Oklahoma City Thunder 4 – 0 Los Angeles Lakers across the last 4 meetings.
| # | Team | W | L | PF | PA | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64 | 18 | 9760 | 8846 | WWWWW | |
| 4 | 53 | 29 | 9540 | 9396 | WLLWL |
Current season as available on the live data feed.

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